September, 2005

2005.09.30 — Alfred, Ohio. Autumn… Boston… baseball! Who would have ever guessed that mental association? Tonight at Fenway park, Boston begins three game series against New York for the title. Good luck Red Sox, beat those d___ Yankees!

Judith Miller is out of jail. She is the reporter who refused to testifying in court about the CIA operative, Valerie Plame, case. I wrote about this back in July on the 24th, 12th, 6th, and the 5th. It should be interesting to hear what she has to say.

2005.09.29 — Alfred, Ohio. A couple of days ago I mentioned the coming bird flu pandemic and said it would be covered another day. Well today is it. I've done a little research on it. National Geographic has a good article on it this month. The World Health Organization (WHO) has several articles about it. Poking around their site a little, I found a paper that paints a pretty bleak picture. It is a large (2,552kb) paper titled Avian influenza: assessing the pandemic threat.

Expecting that some may be too busy to peruse the entire 62 page article, allow me to give a few of the points that really struck me.

• Pandemics, though rare, occur. We had three in the last century. The last was in 1968-69 (Hong Cong). We are due for another.
• Times have change since 1918. Medicines and communications are much better and faster today. Today we have a much larger population and travel is far greater and faster than in 1918. No one knows how this will eventually play out.
• H5N1 (the bird flu) is endemic in the fowl populations of Asia and is finding its way into mammals
• During the 1918-19 Spanish flu, nearly everyone on earth was exposed to it within a year. A third of the population contracted it. WHO is very concerned that a new pandemic could spread to enormous numbers in a matter of weeks. That would overload everything. There would not enough hospitals, doctors, anti-viral medicines, coffins, etc. to cope if most became sick all at once.
• Several Asian countries have gone to extraordinary measures to stop this virus. All have failed. Quarantines are largely ineffective. You are contagious before symptoms appear.
• Who is at risk? Typical flu deaths occur at either end of life (very old or very young). H5N1 is not typical and tends to hit the healthy 15-35 age group very hard. No one knows why.
• The symptoms of H5N1 start like any flu (high fever), after that, a person has only mild flu symptoms. About day five, breathing becomes difficult and most head for the hospital. Day six brings multiple organ failures and death normally due to lung failure.
• The anti-viral medicines available today work great provided that they are taken by day two, when symptoms are still mild.
• How many will die? Best case scenario… 2-7 million. To give a sense of scale, about 7 million people died due to World War 1 over a period of four years. Approximately 40 million people died from the 1918-19 Spanish flu in less than a year.
• When will it strike? No one knows. It is certain to strike? No one knows, but it appears likely.
• There are 49 million people living today with a weakened immune system due to the HIV virus. No one knows what happens if you add H5N1 to the mix. In addition, we have a much larger and very mobile population today in comparison to 1918.
• They can not stockpile vaccine until they can match very closely the strain that is causing the problem. It takes time to manufacture, and time may be on very short supply.
• Humans have not known this virus before so no one has any antibodies or natural defenses against it.
• The fatality rate of those who contract it is about 50%.

The WHO report really is worth reading. They don’t pull any punches. So, what to do? You could despair and take fatalistic attitude. That sort of thinking may seal your fate. You could also do what you can now to keep yourself in top physical condition, eat well, avoid stress, avoid getting yourself rundown. Hopefully, these behaviors will give you a fighting chance should the worst case scenario come to pass.

2005.09.27 — Alfred, Ohio. Here are a few unrelated topics that caught my eye in the news.

China Pledges Not to Unload U.S. T-Bills–A rather short article that is full of denial. You might even call it a strong denial. Uh oh!

The Persian Puzzle: Iran and the invention of a nuclear crisis–This is a very detailed account of what Iran has actually done. That is another way of saying it is pretty lengthy. However, it is probably not be what you think and will likely change your views towards the world. I highly recommended you read it.

Sheehan arrested in front of White House–“"Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the government for a redress of grievances."”

The quote is the First Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, the first section of the Bill of Rights. It guarantees freedoms of religion, speech, writing and publishing, peaceful assembly, and the freedom to raise grievances with the Government. In addition, it requires that a wall of separation be maintained between church and state.

Cindy Sheehan may be an utter lunatic, but the fact remains that she has a constitutional right to assemble. God knows that she has an honest grievance with the policies of our government (regardless of how you may personally feel about the issues at hand). It it beyond my imagination to think that she is anything other than peaceful. The charge against her? Demonstrating without a permit, which is a misdemeanor.

My ruling on this topic: She has a right to peaceful assembly and doesn’t need a permit to petition the government for a redress of grievances. The government was wrong to arrest her. We the people would be wrong to allow this behavior go unnoticed.

2005.09.25 — Alfred, Ohio. Baltimore, Maryland. Last night we went to Andy and Cyndi’s wedding. It was outdoors and lovely. Tyler, the flower girl, didn’t care about walking down the isle but otherwise, everything went off without a glitch. It was rather dark so we didn’t attempt many photos. The photographer had some very nice equipment and was very certain of his shots. I later found out that he works with National Geographic. Wow! I can’t wait to see how they come out.

Dennis, Samwise, and Doug from Cincinnati were there. It was a treat to see how happy Diane and Gary were. It is always a joy to get a few minutes to talk with them. Pity such moments are so scarce.

This morning, my family went out for breakfast together. I am a happy man. Seeing your grown children together and enjoying each others company is as good as it gets. After breakfast, we all headed our own ways. A hundred years ago, it would have been a BIG day to watch Steve and Mary Ellen head for the frozen North and then a few moments later watch Joe, Angie, Nick, and Kate head over the mountains West to be followed later by us. Today, we don’t much think about it. Even in our own times, that would have been a big deal just a few short years ago when the boys were younger.

2005.09.24 — Alfred, Ohio. Jeanie and I, Joe and Angie, Steve and Mary Ellen, Nick and Kate are all heading for Maryland today. Andy and Cyndi are getting married. We are all excited to see my sister and her family again. It should be a lot of fun.

Russell wrote in a little while back that he had managed to climb Mt. Bierstadt. He takes a pretty nice photo at 14,000 feet. I’ll have to admit that I’m envious. I’ve made it near the top of a mountain only twice in my life. Steve and I attempted to climb the Tetons back in ’72. Jeanie, my three boys, and I got up pretty high in the Tetons back in ’97. I recall both times with very fond memories. Guess I just love the Tetons. Anyone who has ever been near the top of a mountain will admit to a sense of awe I am certain. The views… ahh, the views.

Russell has it in his mind that he has to climb a 14k mountain at least once a year. Not a bad goal. Of course living in mile high Denver gives him a pretty good head start compared to the 750 feet above sea level that is my norm. I would have to travel over a thousand miles before ever making the first step towards such a goal. Russell has several 14k mountains nearby. Lucky guy!

Russell on top of Mt. Bierstadt (a little over 14k)

2005.09.23 — Alfred, Ohio. This evening, I received a nice story about a black and white photo that Micki took of the classifieds. That is a pretty common item we see everyday that I wouldn’t ever think to take a photo of. It turns out to be a very nice photo and an excellent description of how she did it. I’m ready to try after reading her story.

Today’s major worries: Hurricane Rita and Iraq. I’ll leave out for now what I think is happening to the economy and the coming bird flu pandemic.

Rita is already causing problems in New Orleans. “We have three significant breaches in the levee and the water is rising rapidly,” – Maj. Barry Guidry of the Georgia National Guard.

The Christian Science Monitor today has a good article discussing The ‘myth’ of Iraq’s foreign fighters. According to a report by the Center for Strategic International Studies (CSIS):

The CSIS report says: “The vast majority of Saudi militants who have entered Iraq were not terrorist sympathisers before the war; and were radicalized almost exclusively by the coalition invasion.”

The average age of the Saudis was 17-25 and they were generally middle-class with jobs, though they usually had connections with the most prominent conservative tribes. “Most of the Saudi militants were motivated by revulsion at the idea of an Arab land being occupied by a non-Arab country. These feelings are intensified by the images of the occupation they see on television and the internet… the catalyst most often cited [in interrogations] is Abu Ghraib, though images from Guantánamo Bay also feed into the pathology.”

Further down in the article is a sentence that just makes my blood boil: “The main goal has now become avoiding the image of failure.” Explain that to Cindy Sheehan and to the parents of the other 1,900 U.S. men and women who have died there or to the thousands who have been injured.

2005.09.22 — Alfred, Ohio. Today at 6:23 EDT is the Autumn Equinox. This marks the beginning of Fall. There will be twelve hours of daylight, twelve hours of darkness. This would be a good time to get outside and adjust your sundial. The weather is about perfect this time of year where we live. I’m looking forward to another nice long drive this weekend through West Virginia into Maryland to attend a wedding.

2005.09.18 — Alfred, Ohio. Jeanie and I went to visit Old Man’s Cave today. We got a late start, but what does it matter. We had already decided to spend the day at it. We went to Ash Cave first. I was feeling like a pack horse with tripod, an extra lens, camera, but off we went. Wouldn’t you know that when we got to the cave a sunbeam fell through the pine trees. Jeanie said “get a picture of that” (I was looking at something else entirely). OK, it really IS beautiful. I set up the shot and… nothing. Dead batteries. Fortunately, Jeanie had her camera and took a shot of it.

Click sunbeam to enlarge. Photo credits: Jeanie.

We then headed out for Cedar Falls. It was nearly dry. We met a funny group that had just walked from Old Man’s Cave (a couple of miles) and gave a couple of them a ride back in the back of the truck.

Old Man’s Cave had some tasty ice cream I recall. Actually, they have done a fair amount of work on the trails. From the bottom of the lower falls, I counted 201 steps back up to the top level. Whew!

Everyone has a place that is special to them. I have many. The state parks in the Hocking Hills are special to me probably just because of their proximity to us. I’d rather have been on a mountain in Colorado but this was only an hour away and a beautiful drive at that.

Misti has become a publisher by creating a blog titled Misti, Mike and Zachary. She hopes to post weekly. If you know Misti, write her a note to encourage her to continue writing and posting pictures. Everyone who has started a blog knows that it difficult right at first to feel motivated to write. Welcome to the online world Misti!

2005.09.17 — Alfred, Ohio. Jeanie and I went to see “Just Like Heaven”. It was pretty good entertainment. Nothing more, nothing less. In the weekend movie guide of the Christian Science Monitor they threw in the word doppelgänger to describe Reese Witherspoon. I’m a fool for strange words so I just had to look it up and add it to my dictionary of peculiar words. Once I knew the meaning and saw the movie, it all made sense.

How often do you walk or drive by a lovely scene every day and never notice it? I do it all the time. Today, I’d like to introduce you to a photo buddy of mine who is particularly observant of the world around her. Micki sees a photo opportunity in nearly everything and has agreed to share and discuss some of her photos with us.

2005.09.16 — Alfred, Ohio. A bit of doom and gloom for those so inclined to read it. Bill Mckibben of the Pacific News Service wrote a thoughtful article titled “Message from Hurricane Katrina: Code red for global warming”. Here are a few of the more thought provoking items he mentions in his article:

“In the last centery, we’ve seen change in human societies speed up to an almost unimaginable level, one that has stressed every part of our civilization. In this century, we’re going to see the natural world change at the same kind of rate.”

“…for politicians to announce that it will be rebuilt, and doubtless it will be. Once. But if hurricanes like Katrina go from once-in-a-century storms to once-in-a-decade-or-two storms, how many times are you going to rebuild it?”

“Our rulers have insisted by both word and deed that the laws of physics and chemistry do not apply to us. That delusion will now start to vanish.… New Orleans doesn't look like the American we’ve lived in. But it very much resembles the planet we will inhabit the rest of our lives.”

2005.09.14 — Alfred, Ohio. Bill Gates was recently featured in an interview with the Seattle Post-Intelligencer. I found this question and his response most interesting:

Q: Is outsourcing playing a role there, in lessening the amount of growth in the Seattle area?

Gates: “Well, the economy is a very complex thing. We sell way more of our software overseas than we sell internally. That is, the U.S. disproportionately gets our R&D activity relative to the amount of software we sell in the U.S. And so, why has Microsoft ever been able to hire people? Because of world trade. So if people don’t believe in letting other countries get rich and buy more U.S. products, if trade liberalization freezes up or goes backwards, that’s a very bad thing for an export-oriented company like Microsoft.

We like the idea that China is developing their economy. They’ve taken more people out of poverty than any country in history over just even the last 10 years. We view those as a good thing. It does mean the world is getting a lot more competitive. We will have competitors arising out of these Asian countries. That’s fine.

So I think the advances in the world economy largely have been positive, and we see that in the increasing sales in Asia, and without those our hiring growth couldn’t be maintained.”

A note from Al showed up in this morning’s mail.

2005.09.13 — Alfred, Ohio. When you have time, read this press release from the White House titled: President, Lieutenant General Honore Discuss Hurricane Relief in Louisiana. Place yourself in the shoes of the reporter and tell me how you feel.

2005.09.12 — Alfred, Ohio. What do we know about Judge Roberts? We know that he has been a judge less than three years and that he has been nominated to be the Chief Justice of the United States Supreme Court. From most accounts, he has integrity, a good sense of humor, and a brilliant intellect. He is obviously on the fast track. Sounds pretty good a first blush. There are a few questions about his knowledge of the Iran Contra affair. The little reading I’ve done suggests that he was aware of it while it was happening. He advised against the illegal fund raising mind you, but still, I think he probably knew. There are also questions about opinions he wrote to assist the president wield power that is not granted him through the constitution in the case of suspected terrorists.

2005.09.11 — Alfred, Ohio. Happy Birthday Mary Ellen!

2005.09.10 — Alfred, Ohio. Who would guess that Frogtails would have so many visitors from all over. It takes a moment to load on a dial up line and you may have seen it before but I would really encourage you to take a second look. Once the map is displayed, zoom in (plus sign on the left) a little or click on any of the balloons. Pretty amazing.

Today I want to discuss another topic that will surely touch a nerve:

Gasoline gouging at the pumps

You remember that a neighbor of mine recently said that we would have petrol at well over $3.00 within three weeks. That seemed quite a stretch back then (we thought it was high at $2.50). It is easily a dollar a gallon higher than it was last year this time.

2005.09.09 — Alfred, Ohio. This was a pretty quiet and relaxing week at home. The weather has been really nice. Cool and foggy at night and early morning, bright, sunny, and warm (not terribly hot) through the day. Work has been a different story. Seems everyone wants to go berserk every now and then.

2005.09.06 — Alfred, Ohio. Here is a shot of the plumeria in bloom.

2005.09.05 — Alfred, Ohio. Another beautiful day. Two more plumeria flowers are beginning to open. Each time I walked through our doorway I was able to catch the scent. I was able to put a second course of concrete blocks around the well today so was in and out a lot getting drinks and taking breaks. The scent is heavenly and the flowers themselves look unlike anything in these parts. In Hawaii, they look quite natural. Unfortunately, everything hurts this evening. :(

President Bush has nominated Roberts to be chief justice of the U.S. Supreme Court. If he gets the job, he would likely be the last one I ever see. I think it a bad idea to take someone without ANY experience on the supreme court and make him or her the chief justice for such a long period of time. I think that anyone who would make such a suggestion is exercising very poor judgment.

This morning after being up for an hour or so I recalled as if from nowhere a dream that I had last night. It is an enigma to me and not likely of interest to anyone else so I’ve written about it elsewhere.

2005.09.04 — Alfred, Ohio. Joe and Angie stopped by this evening for a visit. That was a perfect ending to a beautiful (weather wise) day. Thanks for stopping in kids!

Jeanie and I took the top of the well off today and started rebuilding. We have vastly different working styles. I’m an old grouch to work with apparently. I took a boat load of pictures hoping to get at least one good one. The well itself it amazing. It was hand dug 28 feet deep and nearly six feet in diameter. The sides were laid up with field rock. The water level was very low so the pics should give a good sense of that huge hole in our front yard.

2005.09.03 — Alfred, Ohio. The plumeria that I have been growing for two years opened up for the first time today. Many thanks to Joe and Angie for the times they have kept it watered while I was away. It is beautiful.

2005.09.02 — Alfred, Ohio. Very nice weather here today for doing chores. It looks like the entire Labor Day weekend will be pleasant.

We picked up a roll of photos today. Most of these were taken last month. Click the archives and then August to view them. The one of my Dad, brother, and nephew is clickable as is the one of Angie.

Old New Orleans. New New Orleans.

I came up with those terms Thursday at work. They sounded funny at the time but also came to me quite naturally when attempting to describe the cities. By now, they seem a likely reality and an appropriate way to describe the cities. Old New Orleans sounds rather haunting and exciting. It conjures up thoughts somewhat like Atlantis does. Old New Orleans was a place I have many fond memories of. In Old New Orleans, many artists and musicians used to just hang out around Jackson Square and Bourbon Street to enjoy the crowds, the weather, and improve their art. They wanted to make a buck of course but that was not always the primary motive for being there.

Many of the structures in Old New Orleans were made of wood and already full of termites. A month or more under the sludge and water will make them fit only to be razed. I don’t expect the New New Orleans to be anywhere near the same and may not even be built in the same location. Sure, they will still celebrate Mardi Gras and have a King Cake on Fat Tuesday, they will have to reconstruct an Old French Quarter somewhere, the food will still be Cajun, the music Dixieland, and so on… but everything will probably have a much more commercial slick polished slant to it. Many things will just be lost in the transition. I can not imagine the New New Orleans without the St. Charles Streetcar, but I also can not imagine that they would build another in a different location. It would be cost prohibitive. Kind of like making the levies category five safe. Imagine if you will a New New Orleans without a Cafe du Monde or any of a thousand other similar memories all lost because of the bucks involved.

Old New Orleans will be remembered with a vengeance when the next few elections roll around. The bungled relief efforts will haunt everyone currently in office. Rightfully so, in my opinion.

2005.09.01 — Alfred, Ohio. Today I want to discuss a certain mind set that many people in our military have. I’ve questioned the wisdom of it for years. Rather than trusting in the common sense of people to do the right thing, it seems to me that our military strongly favors putting in a process that works well regardless of who the people are that actually do the work. In many cases, this can be made to work. It often times takes twenty people to do the work of one, but when money and time are unimportant, the work can eventually get done. Unfortunately, it produces a workforce that lacks creativity, that is unable to react to unusual circumstances, and is slow to respond to changing conditions. Everything relies on the command and control systems functioning properly. Decisions are often made by people with little knowledge of the situation at hand and far removed from the problems. Iraq is a stunning case study of this phenomenon. Want an example closer to home? How about:

The emergency response to Hurricane Katrina

Beyond those living in the immediate area, it didn’t much happen. We all know that. The grapevine we all listen to was full of stories this week. One has to eventually ask… why?

Starting somewhere, I’ll try to answer why I think the military presence was missing from action. The typical grunt who does the actual work is not permitted much leeway or discretion about what he/she does. Decision making is hopefully done at the lowest possible rank but this disaster was of great magnitude. A typical platoon corporal in a reserve unit is not in a position to do determine what is the appropriate course of action to take during such events. Unfortunately, the aftermath of the hurricane was not immediately apparent to anyone far from the scene. Locals probably realized that that they had a big local problem but may not have realized the extent or nature of everything going on. The people who authorize the expenditure of millions of dollars for a rescue operation such as we are now beginning to see, were likely simply unaware of the magnitude of the disaster. They were unaware of the situation and far removed from the problem.

Once the appropriate decision makers tune in to the problem, they have to take action. Spending taxpayer funds is really not taken so lightly as we might imagine. Someone has to gain a political benefit for every nickel that is spent. That is a sad statement to make but I really believe it to be true.

How then could we respond quicker to the tsunami victims than to our own people? We have people floating in ships and stationed all over the world. They are already being paid regardless of what they do. This manpower is basically available for the asking and costs us nothing extra to utilize them. Sailing in circles, training, or helping tsunami victims would all cost about the same. The U.S. likes to be seen as helpful in the world so the politicians could immediately jump at the opportunity to further our cause without incurring much additional expense.

Calling up 20 or 30 thousand reserve units and national guard is a different story. It costs additional money. Do the math. 20k troops x say $100 a day. That is an additional two million dollars for every day (seven days a week) that you call up these troops. Most of the reserves will already be working full time jobs and a few attending college. We will have to first contact them and then give them a couple days notice of being called up. However, they won’t even get notified until someone on high authorizes the expenditures. So it can easily be a week or more before the first boot hits the ground. That all assumes that they had already planned for this type of situation and that everyone would know precisely where to go and what to do. That is obviously not the case in this situation.

Could anything be done differently? In my opinion, yes. Fort Polk is in Louisiana just hours away from the center of the problem. Take a look at their site. They claim to be the Joint Readiness Training Center. They also have the 4th Infantry Brigade Combat Team whose mission is:

Fort Polk has thousands of soldiers that could be in New Orleans is less time than it took me to write this. They have the heavy equipment and would seem from their mission statement ready, willing and able to go. All that it takes is for someone to tell them to deploy. Most folks in D.C. making the decisions have probably never even heard of Fort Polk. Unfortunately, the commander of the base knows the game. He would likely be court marshalled if he took it upon himself to do what any of my neighbors would do in a heartbeat without giving it a second thought. And so they sit… “waiting for the word”.

I am not saying that I agree with the way things work, just trying to give a perspective of why I think things take so long. Mayor Nagin of New Orleans naturally has a slightly different spin on it. Here is the transcript of a radio interview with New Orleans’ Nagin. Russell provided another angle… the laws of our country. His thoughts on New Orleans are also interesting to read.

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